Buoyed by a new congressional map favoring their party, California Democrats eyed Tuesday’s primary elections as a critical first step toward flipping a handful of House seats and taking back power in Washington.
As of Wednesday, the results were a mixed bag — with Democratic candidates advancing to November’s general election as expected in several districts that were redrawn in their favor as a result of last year’s Proposition 50 ballot measure, but early results in another race considered critical to their majority aspirations causing unease.
One of the most closely watched races was in the redrawn 22nd Congressional District in the Central Valley, where incumbent Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford) is facing challenges from moderate Assemblymember Jasmeet Bains (D-Delano) and progressive college professor Randy Villegas.
Valadao easily advanced to the November general election, according to the Associated Press, while Villegas and Bains were still fighting for a second-place finish as of Wednesday.
Another closely watched race was in the redrawn 48th Congressional District in San Diego and Riverside counties, where Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Bonsall) decided to retire rather than run for reelection, and where Republican San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond — who is endorsed by Trump — ran against a pack of Democrats.
Desmond advanced, as did Democratic challenger San Diego City Councilmember Marni von Wilpert, according to the Associated Press.
The race causing some concern for Democrats — but not dismay, given plenty of the vote was still to come in — was in the 6th Congressional District, which includes the city of Sacramento and Placer County suburbs and was designed to be a safe seat for Democrats.
Under Proposition 50, Democrats reconfigured the nearby 3rd Congressional District to unseat Republican Rep. Kevin Kiley. Kiley, in response, quit the Republican Party and became an independent, and ran instead for the neighboring 6th Congressional District, despite the seat also being designed to favor a Democrat.
As of Wednesday, the race for the 6th district was incredibly close and splitting three ways — with Kiley, Republican candidate Michael Stansfield and Democratic candidate former state Sen. Richard Pan all carrying around a quarter of the votes, and the rest of the district’s sizable Democratic vote splintering among several other Democratic candidates.
If Kiley and Stansfield manage to lock the Democrats out of the November race, it would represent a major upset for the party.
Dave Wasserman, senior editor and elections analyst for the independent, nonpartisan Cook Political Report, posted on X on Wednesday morning that losing the seat would be “disastrous for Dems” — though there was “still good reason to believe” that Pan could advance.
Rep. Pete Aguilar (D-Redlands), who is chair of the House Democratic Caucus and handily advanced in his own race, downplayed the chances of a Democrat lockout in the 6th — saying during a news conference Wednesday that he knew something about such scenarios, having been locked out of a congressional race himself in 2012, but was confident it would not happen this year.
“It’s not gonna happen. I’m confident it’s not gonna happen. A Democrat’s gonna get into the top two there,” he said, mentioning Pan by name. “He’ll have the support of the Democratic caucus as soon as the ballots are counted.”
Proposition 50 — which Californians passed with nearly 65% of the vote a year ago — was California Democrats’ response to Texas Republicans redrawing their state’s congressional maps in the GOP’s favor, at President Trump’s behest. It was also the only major Democratic counterpunch in the wider mid-decade redistricting brawl that has spread across the country in the last year.
Experts expect the redistricting battle to deliver a net gain of a handful or more House seats to Republicans. But Democrats could gain even more ground given Trump’s lousy approval ratings and the long history of midterm election losses for the president’s party.
Combined, those factors make the battle for control of the House incredibly close, which in turn makes the five seats up for grabs in California pivotal — and potentially decisive.
In addition to flipping the seats currently held by Valadao, Issa and Kiley, Democrats are hoping to pick up two additional seats.
In the 1st Congressional District — which after Proposition 50 lost rural reaches of northeast California and picked up liberal North Bay communities — various candidates were vying for the seat long held by the late Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R-Richvale), who died in January. The two to advance, according to the Associated Press, were Democratic state Sen. Mike McGuire and Republican Assemblymember James Gallagher, who is endorsed by Trump.
Voters from the existing district also voted in a special election Tuesday to fill the remainder of LaMalfa’s term, electing Gallagher to the position outright with more than 50% of the vote, according to the Associated Press.
In the 41st Congressional District, which became more liberal after Proposition 50 by losing voters in Riverside County and gaining them in Los Angeles County, a slate of candidates — including Rep. Linda Sánchez (D-Whittier), who currently represents a different district — ran to replace Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Corona). Calvert, a 17-term incumbent, decided to run in the neighboring 40th Congressional District instead.
Sánchez advanced Tuesday, as did Republican Mitch Clemmons, according to the Associated Press.
In the 40th Congressional District, which covers a swath of inland Orange County and portions of San Bernardino and Riverside counties, Calvert advanced, while incumbent Rep. Young Kim (R-Anaheim Hills) remained as of Wednesday in a battle for second place, according to the Associated Press.
Other districts that were not part of the Proposition 50 shuffle are also attracting attention.
In the 11th Congressional District in San Francisco, two Democrats advanced to replace Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco), the retiring former House speaker: state Sen. Scott Wiener and Connie Chan, a member of the San Francisco Board of Supervisors whom Pelosi endorsed.
Democrats were also closely watching several races where younger Democrats and progressives are challenging older incumbent Democrats, and where newer Democratic incumbents are seeking to hold on to their seats in relatively competitive districts.
Among the older incumbents, Rep. Brad Sherman (D-Sherman Oaks) had enough votes to advance to November, alongside Republican challenger Larry Thompson, according to the Associated Press. Rep. Mike Thompson (D-St. Helena) also had enough votes to advance, though it was unclear whom he would face in November.
The Associated Press had not made any calls as of late Tuesday night in the race for the seat of incumbent Rep. Doris Matsui (D-Sacramento), though Matsui put out a statement saying she had advanced and was confident of winning in November.
Newer incumbents with enough votes to advance to November included Reps. Adam Gray (D-Merced), Derek Tran (D-Orange) and George Whitesides (D-Agua Dulce), according to the Associated Press.
Advancing against Gray was Republican Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln, and against Whitesides was Republican Santa Clarita Councilmember Jason Gibbs, according to the Associated Press. It remained unclear who would advance alongside Tran.
