Hurricane Earl is expected to strengthen into the season’s first major hurricane by Friday, with maximum sustained winds of up to 120 mph by Friday night, forecasters said.
Though Earl has yet to strengthen into a major hurricane, meaning Category 3 or above, National Hurricane Center forecasters said in an 8 p.m. advisory that it’s still possible to happen by Friday.
Its winds could top 120 mph by Friday night, which would make it a Category 4 hurricane, and Earl’s swells could mean higher risks of rip currents along South Florida beaches this weekend and into early next week, experts said Thursday.
As of 8 a.m. Thursday, Earl’s maximum sustained winds had increased to 105 mph, making it the first Category 2 hurricane of the 2022 Atlantic season. Earl was growing by Thursday afternoon but had not yet become stronger, forecasters said.
By 8 p.m., , Earl’s maximum sustained winds were at 100 mph and was located about 120 miles south-southeast of Bermuda, moving north-northeast at 16 mph. Earl’s hurricane-force winds extended out up to 60 miles from its center while tropical storm-force winds extended out up to 185 miles.
Earl’s impacts could extend as far west as the U.S. East Coast, in the form of rough seas, swells and rip currents starting late Thursday.
The National Weather Service Miami said in a briefing Thursday morning that Atlantic beaches will see higher risks of rip currents over the weekend and Monday as a result of Hurricane Earl’s swells. The briefing highlights the West Palm Beach area as a risk for those days, along with the Fort Lauderdale area on Monday.
”Thankfully, Earl is going to pass over 800 miles east of the coast of North Carolina. However, hurricanes that are the size and strength of Earl can send swells outward over 1,000 miles from the storm,” said AccuWeather senior meteorologist Michael Doll.
Bermuda is now under a hurricane watch as well as a tropical storm warning as Earl closes in. Earl is expected to produce up to 3 inches of rain over the island.
The National Hurricane Center said Bermuda would start to see tropical storm conditions Thursday night. Its center is expected to pass to the southeast of Bermuda late Thursday.
“Hurricane-force winds are possible on Bermuda this evening or tonight if Earl’s track shifts farther west than is currently forecast,” the center’s 2 p.m. update said.
“There will be some impacts on the islands of Bermuda in the form of building seas, rough surf, gusty winds and some rain from Earl, but the potentially destructive winds and torrential rain are likely to pass to the east,” said AccuWeather chief on-air meteorologist Bernie Rayno.
Earl is expected to continue strengthening as it curves away from the U.S.
By Saturday night, Earl is forecast to become a powerful post-tropical low.
Meanwhile, National Hurricane Center forecasters say an area of low pressure located near the central Atlantic Ocean could form into a tropical depression Thursday, though it no longer has high odds of doing so.
As of 8 p.m. Thursday, the National Hurricane Center said it had 60% odds of developing over the next two to five days, down from 70% earlier in the day.
The system only needs to develop slightly, the center’s update said, for it to become a short-lived tropical depression. After Friday, it will face upper-level winds later in this week, which are known to hinder storm development.
A second tropical wave is expected to emerge off Africa this week. It has been given a 30% chance of developing over the next five days.
Hurricane Danielle weakened to a tropical storm early Thursday, and by 11 a.m. it became a post-tropical storm.
“After transitioning into a tropical rainstorm, there is some chance that Danielle could bring rain to western Europe next week. The extent and location of the rain will depend on the exact track of the storm,” AccuWeather senior meteorologist Adam Douty said.
Danielle and Earl were the first named storms to form in the Atlantic since early July, when Tropical Storm Colin formed offshore of the Carolinas. This comes after a quiet August with no named storms, something that happened for only the third time since 1961.
The 2020 hurricane season set a record with 30 named systems, while 2021′s season was the third most active with 21 named systems. An average year calls for 14 named storms.
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The next named storm to form will be Fiona.
Forecasters say dry air, Saharan dust and wind shear have been among the reasons there haven’t been more storms this year.
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Hurricane season ends Nov. 30.
