Flu peak still to come after holidays; medical experts advise those with symptoms to stay home to limit spread

Fewer patients are being hospitalized this December for respiratory illnesses like COVID-19, influenza or respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) than last year, but the peak in flu cases is still to come right after the two busiest travel weekends, Christmas and New Year’s Day.

Medical experts and public health officials still advise safety precautions to avoid getting sick or spreading diseases to others during holiday travel and gatherings, with the primary message to stay home if you are sick.

Executive medical director of infectious disease and prevention at Advocate Health Care Robert Citronberg expects to see a big surge of flu cases in the community, and an increase in hospitalizations related to the flu, within the next two weeks.

“We haven’t come anywhere near our (flu) peak yet,” Citronberg said. “We can tell that from looking at the (Centers for Disease Control) flu map.”

Flu activity in Illinois and Wisconsin is low to moderate, but in the southern U.S. the number of flu cases is high to very high.

“Flu typically travels from south to north, and from east to west in this country,” Citronberg said. “So you can predict based on patterns that we see in the southeastern United States and other parts of the south, that in a couple weeks we’re going to have a lot of flu activity.”

Since mid-November, hospitalizations and emergency room visits for broad respiratory illnesses have been slightly decreasing statewide, while flu visits have been steadily rising.

Last week, 3.2% of emergency room visits and 1.6% of hospital admissions were for flu patients, according to the Illinois Department of Public Health’s respiratory illness dashboard.

Just over three weeks ago on Dec. 2, flu patients made up only 1.4% of emergency room visits and 0.9% of hospital admissions, according to the dashboard.

Statewide, there was a steady level of RSV emergency room visits and hospitalizations for pediatric patients, Citronberg said. Cases peaked at the national level, and Citronberg said RSV cases will likely be decreasing for the rest of the season.

[ ‘Tripledemic’? Local medical experts urge vaccination as COVID, flu and RSV hospitalizations spike nationwide. ]

Respiratory viruses like the flu, COVID and RSV, have seasonal properties that make them common this time of year, say medical experts. Add in cold weather, more time indoors, holiday gatherings and travel, and there is a higher chance of disease-spreading.

Illness caused by the flu is as, or more severe than COVID right now, Citronberg said. “People can get really sick, or can die from the flu,” he added.

COVID cases are still common within the community, but Citronberg said hospitalization rates are far below historic levels, and there are fewer patients with severe illnesses or requiring intensive care units.

In Lake County, hospitalizations for COVID were down 1.6% from the week prior to 632 admissions for the week of Dec. 16, according to data from CDC. Hospital admission levels are considered low at 8.9 admissions per 100,000 people.

Citronberg said the encouraging situation reflects the changing nature of the virus.

“By this time, almost everybody has had COVID, or they’ve been vaccinated. So we have this population immunity,” he said. “It doesn’t prevent you from getting COVID, but it does prevent you from getting really sick or dying from it. Which is why COVID deaths are extremely low.”

Statewide, 3.3% of hospital admissions were for COVID patients for the week of Dec. 23, according to the state respiratory illness dashboard. Last year at this time, COVID patients made up 5.6% of admissions.

The most important thing a sick person can do from spreading illness is to stay away from others.

“Recognition of those early symptoms is really important,” Citronberg said. “If you do have a sore throat, you may feel a little bit achy, that’s a sign that you’re coming down with something like flu or COVID. And that’s a really good time to stay away from people.”

The incubation period for the flu and COVID is on average about three to four days. After six or seven days with symptoms, Citronberg said a person is likely not going to get sick.

For those who are concerned about coming in contact with symptomatic people while traveling, the Lake County health department recommends wearing a mask as a precaution.

High quality, well fitting masks like a N95 provide the best protection from airborne diseases. Cloth or flimsy masks are not as effective, Citronberg added.

“If you are traveling for the holidays, take time to protect yourself and those you are spending time with against respiratory viruses like COVID, flu and RSV,” said Emily Young, communications manager at the county health department. “If you start feeling sick before you travel, consider testing for COVID-19 with an at-home test and staying home so that you don’t infect anyone else.”

chilles@chicagotribune.com