As tensions escalate in the Middle East amid the threat of a wider war and potential retaliation by Iran against Israel, our adversaries and allies in the region must weigh one considerable likelihood — there could soon be a return of President Donald Trump. For Israel, Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas, this means the decisions they make now are being done ahead of a possible Trump inauguration. In this critical time period, America’s message should be clear: To our allies in the region, “hold on,” and to our adversaries, “be wary.”
Following strikes into Israeli territory by Hezbollah and Iran amid Israel’s ongoing war against Hamas in Gaza, Israel is waging a three-front war for the survival of its nation.
Israel has targeted efforts to eliminate Hamas and Hezbollah leadership and reestablish deterrence in the region. But that deterrence has largely been eroded through the pressure imposed by President Joe Biden’s administration to accept a cease-fire rather than finish the job of eradicating Hamas’ governing structure in Gaza.
While Israel has not officially claimed responsibility for the recent assassinations, Israel has historically taken drastic steps to defend its people and statehood. As a nation with a population of 9 million and 8,500 square miles of territory, surrounded by Muslim-majority nations, Israel’s leadership knows that not only does Israel have the right to defend its state and people, but it also has the moral obligation to do so.
Israeli leadership is equally aware, however, that this moral obligation cannot be carried out by Israel alone and that the support of the United States, both politically and militarily, is vital to its survival. However, Israeli officials also know from history that Israel sometimes has to defend its security on its own.
Under the administration of Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris, U.S. support has been absent and has even leaned toward an anti-Israel policy framework that has emboldened Iran.
Following in the pathway of President Barack Obama’s administration, the Biden-Harris administration has continued to recklessly pursue a nuclear deal with Iran — a nation whose leadership refers to the U.S. as the “Great Satan” and Israel the “little Satan.” That approach, unsurprisingly, has positioned us where we are today in which a nuclear breakout by Iran is imminent.
In August 2023, the Biden administration authorized a ransom payment of $6 billion to Iran to secure the release of five American citizens.
Following the deadly Oct. 7 attacks, the Biden-Harris administration continued to spotlight its weakness in its dealing with Iranian proxy groups as the administration’s lackluster and delayed response to Houthi rebels enabled them to wreak havoc in the Red Sea, jeopardizing critical global trade routes.
Similar inaction against Hezbollah has led to the current situation in which despite Israel’s ongoing war in Gaza with Hamas, Israeli leadership is viewing a war to the north with Hezbollah as the greater, more imminent threat.
Amid all of this, the Biden-Harris administration has continued to pressure Israel into accepting a cease-fire that would leave Hamas intact and positioned to rebuild, resume control of Gaza and prepare another devastating terrorist assault against Israel.
Without question, the Biden-Harris administration’s approach toward national security has set the stage for the rising conflict and instability we are seeing in the Middle East.
This escalation and instability are remarkably different from the stability in the Middle East that was achieved under Trump, whose peace-through-strength model implemented bold, nation-state level diplomacy accompanied by credible deterrence to advance our vital national interests in the region.
Toward Iran, the Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” sanctions campaign coupled with decisive military action thwarted Iran’s nuclear proliferation, its enablement of proxy groups in the region and hostile actions against Israel. Most importantly, the Trump administration’s deterrence of Iran promoted the security of the American people.
In his 2020 State of the Union address, Trump affirmed the clear message and intent behind the assassination of Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani, who was behind numerous terrorist attacks sponsored by Iran: “You will never escape American justice. If you attack our citizens, you forfeit your life.”
Beyond the strong deterrence that contained our adversaries in the region, U.S. engagement achieved momentous peace agreements through the signing of the Abraham Accords, the historic normalization of relations agreement between Israel and four Arab nations that set the framework for future peace and stability in the region.
The decision to move the U.S. Embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem also solidified the bold diplomatic actions that Trump was willing to take to support our ally Israel and achieve stability in the region. Trump was the only president to officiate this policy and carry it out.
For the American people watching these events unfold, the policy record and its consequences between the Trump administration and the current administration could not be more profound, a record that should be a powerful consideration when the American people decide who their next commander in chief should be.
For our allies and adversaries in the region, the same is true. This means that any action taken now will have future implications and each side will have to craft their next steps with the prospect of Trump returning. For Israel, this means holding on and continuing to carry out its mission of defending its nation and people from Iran and its proxies.
For our adversaries in the region, this means being wary of any act of retaliation against Israel.
Retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg was a national security adviser to President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence during their administration. Kellogg is currently the co-chair of the Center for American Security at the America First Policy Institute.
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