Backlash against Trump, ICE raids, gas prices fuels changing political tide in California heartland

DELANO, Calif. — While cutting men’s hair in his barbershop, Jorge Navarro has been hearing the same concerns over and over: The prices of gas, food and housing are going up. Immigration agents are lurking outside stores and schools. And President Trump and the Republicans are to blame.

Widespread dissatisfaction with the decisions being made in Washington, he said, helped Democrat Randy Villegas trounce Republican incumbent David Valadao to take his congressional seat in Tuesday’s election.

“We want a change,” Navarro said, speaking in Spanish. “We hope for a change.”

Villegas won in a region of the San Joaquin Valley that has been dominated by Republicans for two decades. The majority Latino district stretches from western Fresno to Bakersfield, an agricultural area with dairy farms, grapevines and vast orchards of almonds, pistachios and oranges.

That Valadao lost to Villegas, a community college professor who ran on a populist message, was not a major surprise, given the gains Democrats made nationwide. But Villegas’ margin of victory left both Republican and Democratic leaders and operatives stunned. The progressive challenger has maintained a lead of roughly 30 percentage points since election night. Although votes still are being counted, the Associated Press has declared Villegas the winner.

“It was remarkable,” said Christian Romo, chair of the Kern County Democratic Party. “I knew we would win but didn’t expect this margin, and I didn’t think that we would have the turnout we did.”

Even Paul Mitchell, the redistricting and election data consultant who drew the reconfigured map to favor Democrats, was surprised by Villegas’ performance.

“We drew the district to be three points more effective for Democrats, and I was off by a factor of 12,” he said.

Though Democrats had a registration advantage even before voters approved the new congressional lines via Proposition 50, Valadao continually frustrated the party by winning over enough independent voters in what historically has been a low-turnout district.

This year voters turned out in droves, especially young Latinos, the district’s largest voting group. Though mail-in ballots still are being processed, turnout may have doubled compared with the last midterm election in 2022.

Villegas, who will turn 32 this week, credits an army of volunteer canvassers, who prioritized reaching out to people who did not have a history of voting.

“So often we have this catch-22 cycle where young people, low-income communities, renters never vote because campaigns don’t talk to them, and campaigns don’t talk to them because they never vote,” he said.

He focused on the cost of living, healthcare and fighting back against moneyed interests in Washington, issues he said resonated with residents who so often feel ignored by those in power.

It’s not “about left versus right; it’s really us versus them,” Villegas said. “Working families in the Central Valley and across this country who’ve been left behind by politicians who care more about power than people and who care more about catering to corporations than our communities.”

His populist and anti-establishment message apparently appealed to voters who felt squeezed by fuel prices and the effect tariffs have had on farms in the area. Many of Villegas’ supporters also were energized by outrage over how Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents have been pursuing immigrants and terrorizing their community.

“People who used to support Trump don’t trust him anymore,” Navarro said in his Delano barbershop, adding that some of his relatives who previously backed Republicans switched sides to vote for Democrats.

Navarro, a 67-year-old Mexican-born U.S. citizen, said Valadao has done a poor job in office.

The sun sets over Highway 99 in Delano, a city in the congressional district where Central Valley voters ousted Republican Rep. David Valadao.

(Tomas Ovalle / For The Times)

One of Valadao’s biggest vulnerabilities in the race was his vote in favor of Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which included steep cuts to Medicaid, the healthcare program for the poor, known in California as Medi-Cal. The district has the highest proportion of Medi-Cal recipients in the state, with 67% of residents enrolled as of last year, according to the California Health Care Foundation.

Many residents also are worried, Navarro said, about the squads of ICE agents that have been appearing in the community to detain people. He said even American citizens and other legal U.S. residents with documents are afraid of being hauled away to detention centers.

He said one ICE team was spotted last week outside a Target store, and another by a high school.

“The streets are sometimes very empty because people are afraid to go out,” Navarro said. Since the raids began, he said, business at his shop has dropped about 50%.

Victor Salazar, a 46-year-old farmworker who was getting a haircut, agreed that ICE agents are liable to seize anyone “if they see you look Hispanic.” Despite being an American citizen, he fears being detained and will not go out if immigration agents are in the area.

Salazar works picking grapes, but lately his hours have been cut back. He says Trump’s tariffs, which have led to retaliatory measures by Canada and other countries, are hurting the farming business.

On top of that, Salazar said, high food prices are a struggle.

“We go to the store and everything is expensive,” he said. “Because of political decisions, we are the ones paying.”

Neftali Trinidad sells flowers on a street corner in Delano.

(Tomas Ovalle/For The Times)

Along with the strong head winds the party faced nationally, Republicans blame the loss on Proposition 50, which rejiggered the district lines to pick up more Democratic voters in response to Trump-ordered GOP gerrymandering in Texas and elsewhere.

“It’s pretty bad,” said Clayton Campbell, chair of the Kern County Republican Party. “There’s so many reasons that it was a tough environment for Republicans this time around, and Valadao was one of the victims.”

Villegas’ victory appears to rebuff the past strategy by Democrats of putting up moderate candidates to challenge Valadao. Earlier this year, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee backed Jasmeet Bains, a moderate Assembly member and family doctor, over Villegas. She finished third in the primary.

Valadao was first elected to Congress in 2012 and reclaimed his seat in 2020 after losing in 2018. Because of redistricting, he served his last two terms in a different district. While in Congress, he has pushed for more water for large farms in the San Joaquin Valley, in line with Trump’s agenda.

But he also split from hard-line Republicans and Trump’s MAGA base with his support for providing a pathway to citizenship for immigrants who entered the country illegally. He was one of the last two House Republicans remaining in Congress who voted to impeach Trump for his role in the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol.

Valadao has not commented publicly since the election. Some voters said the Republican dairy farmer, who lives in Hanford, had a strong record of delivering for the community.

“You’d talk to him and he’d get down to it. … A lot of people like him,” said Arthur Rodriguez, a 75-year-old retiree who worked at an ice cream plant and supports Trump.

Arturo Vitela of Bakersfield stopped for tacos during a ride through Delano on his Harley-Davidson.

(Tomas Ovalle/For The Times)

But others said any Republican associated with Trump was an extremely hard sell here, especially with the state of the economy and how ICE has been targeting Latinos.

“The kids that were brought up from immigrant parents came out and voted, tipped the elections,” said Arturo Vitela, a 64-year-old retired medical lab technician from Bakersfield who was out riding his Harley-Davidson with a friend.

Alexa Lopez, a 23-year-old in Delano who works at a clothing store renting dresses and tuxedos, said she was glad to see that young voters turned out in large numbers. On election night, she texted with friends as they celebrated the sweeping Democratic victories in Congress.

Alexa Lopez, at JFW Formal Wear in Delano, says young voters turned out in high numbers.

(Tomas Ovalle/For The Times)

She said Trump’s anti-immigrant crackdown was a top concern and she wouldn’t vote for anyone perceived as linked to the president.

“The ICE activity has had everyone scared, scared to leave their homes,” Lopez said.

She said people in the area have been feeling both afraid and angry, “knowing that we can’t let it go on like this, and we have to do something about it.”

Lopez said her father, who previously supported Trump, called her days before the election and asked: “We shouldn’t vote Republican, right?”

James reported from Delano and Nixon from Sacramento.