The upcoming 2024 general elections cast a significant spotlight on West Bengal, as it stands as a pivotal battleground for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in its electoral journey. The BJP’s trajectory in West Bengal has been quite a rollercoaster, with a notable upswing during the 2019 elections followed by a subsequent decline. This trend reached its peak during the 2021 West Bengal assembly elections when Prime Minister Narendra Modi personally led the campaign. The BJP’s performance, however, fell below anticipated levels.
Winning Bengal has long been an ardent pursuit for the BJP and the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), rooted in the state’s association with Jan Sangh founder Syama Prasad Mookerjee. Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, the leader of the ruling Trinamool Congress, has emerged as one of the BJP’s most vociferous critics and adversaries. The central government under the BJP has initiated several investigations into her party’s activities over the past few years. However, the BJP’s state unit still finds itself facing a challenging situation.
BJP president JP Nadda has set an ambitious target for Bengal leaders: securing at least 35 of the 42 Lok Sabha seats in the 2024 general elections. Given the prevailing circumstances and various factors at play, however, this appears to be an uphill task.
BJP’s Declining Organisational Influence
The BJP had historically held little sway in West Bengal’s political landscape until the turning point in 2018. Under the leadership of the then Bengal BJP chief Dilip Ghosh, the saffron party orchestrated a remarkable ascent in the state. The 2019 Lok Sabha elections bore witness to the BJP’s astonishing performance, defying earlier expectations and prognostications. Impressively, the party clinched victory in 19 out of the 42 Lok Sabha seats.
Subsequently, in the 2021 Vidhan Sabha elections in West Bengal, the BJP leadership turned all its focus on the state. It initiated a formidable challenge to the Trinamool Congress, led by Mamata Banerjee, with PM Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah spearheading the campaign. While the BJP did not meet all the anticipated outcomes, it did witness a significant increase in its Vidhan Sabha seats — from 3 to 77. Furthermore, the party expanded its organisational footprint across the state. It, however, faced significant setbacks after the election results as many MLAs and MPs joined or rejoined the TMC in the past few years.
As the 2024 general elections loom, the BJP finds itself grappling with a distinct inability to exhibit robust organisational growth. Since the 2021 Vidhan Sabha elections, there has been a noticeable deterioration in the BJP’s organisational strength throughout West Bengal. This decline was starkly underscored by the recent byelection in Dhupguri, in North Bengal, a seat the BJP was unable to retain.
This organisational erosion poses a formidable challenge for the BJP as it endeavours to replicate or better its 2019 Lok Sabha election success in 2024.
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Failure To Provide An Alternative To TMC
Following the victory of the Mamata Banerjee-led TMC in the 2021 West Bengal assembly elections, both the party and the government have found themselves engulfed in a maelstrom of corruption allegations. Accusations of impropriety have surfaced in relation to teacher recruitment at various education levels, from primary to secondary and higher classes. The Calcutta High Court is overseeing investigations into top party leadership, including MP Abhishek Banerjee, who is also the TMC general secretary and Mamata Banerjee’s nephew. Prominent leaders such as Anubrata Mondal have faced incarceration over alleged involvement in these scams.
In the midst of these developments, it was expected that the BJP could leverage the situation to craft a compelling counter-narrative against Banerjee, positioning itself as a viable alternative. The BJP had a promising opportunity, particularly since political heavyweights like the Left and the Congress have seen their influence wane significantly in the state.
However, disappointingly for the BJP, it failed to articulate a credible narrative against the TMC. Moreover, it struggled to establish its own identity as a political entity deeply connected to the concerns and aspirations of West Bengal. It’s worth noting that one of Mamata Banerjee’s central assertions in the 2021 assembly election was that the BJP was an outsider’s political outfit.
Former Trinamool Congress leader Suvendu Adhikari, now a senior BJP figure in Bengal and Leader of the Opposition, made several attempts to lead protests against the Mamata Banerjee government. However, these efforts largely fell short of significant success, primarily due to the party’s limited organisational reach and insufficient support from within its ranks.
Leadership Crisis In BJP
In the current political landscape, the BJP is grappling with a pivotal leadership conundrum. The party’s decision to sideline the former Bengal unit chief, Dilip Ghosh, along with his team, has left a void in the hierarchy. It’s crucial to acknowledge that Ghosh was instrumental in thrusting the BJP into the limelight of Bengal’s political arena. While his political style, language, and other aspects may not have resonated with West Bengal’s elite, he had a commendable grassroots connection.
At present, the state BJP leadership has effectively marginalised individuals who were closely associated with Dilip Ghosh, including another former Bengal BJP chief Rahul Sinha. A faction within the BJP firmly believes that this sidelining of Ghosh, Sinha, and their associates has severely undermined the party’s credibility at the grassroots level. Following Ghosh’s official removal, Dr Sukanta Majumdar assumed the role of state BJP chief. However, his perceived aloofness and limited grassroots engagement have emerged as pressing concerns for the party.
Insiders in the BJP’s Bengal chapter suggest that the party’s leadership is now deeply divided between Suvendu Adhikari and Sukanta Majumdar. This division has resulted in a lack of cohesive decision-making on political, organisational, and policy matters, which stands in stark contrast to the party’s earlier unified approach.
This leadership crisis not only jeopardises the party’s credibility in Bengal but also poses a substantial impediment to its electoral prospects moving forward.
Effects Of Infighting
The internal discord within the BJP’s Bengal division represents one of the most formidable crises the party faces in the lead-up to the 2024 elections. This strife permeates every level of the Bengal BJP, from its upper echelons to the grassroots, casting a pall of disarray over the entire organisation.
The situation has deteriorated to the extent that even high-ranking leaders and individuals with close ties to the RSS in Bengal have found their connections strained. Bengal has emerged as an anomalous case in the BJP’s political history, where the leadership openly voiced their discontent with the general secretary (organisation) of the state — a position pivotal in bridging the gap between the RSS and the party. As a remedy, the central leadership of the BJP and the RSS were compelled to appoint Satish Dhond as the joint general secretary (organisation) to work alongside Amitabha Chakravarty, the erstwhile general secretary (organisation).
Prominent figures, including Home Minister Amit Shah and BJP president JP Nadda, have made visits to Bengal, beseeching party leaders to amicably resolve their personal animosities. Regrettably, on the ground, tangible progress remains elusive. It is a well-documented fact that virtually every BJP leader within the Bengal unit is ensnared within various factions, rendering any semblance of a unified approach absent.
Declining SC-ST Support Base
The BJP’s diminishing support in regions dominated by Scheduled Caste (SC) and Scheduled Tribe (ST) communities stands as a substantial cause for concern. Among these areas, including those dominated by the Matua and Rajbanshi communities, signs of discontent have emerged, signifying a significant shift from their previous steadfast support for the saffron party.
In the wake of the BJP’s resounding success in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, followed by a strong performance in the 2021 Vidhan Sabha elections in West Bengal, the party garnered overwhelming backing from the Matua and Rajbanshi communities. Notably, they maintained their stronghold in areas such as Nadia, the North 24 Parganas, and the bordering regions with Bangladesh. These regions are home to the Matua community, historically considered “untouchables” within Bengal’s caste hierarchy and composed of immigrants from Bangladesh.
Before the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP had made commitments to the Matua community, promising that they would receive citizenship after amendment to the Citizenship Act. Similarly, in North Bengal, the Rajbanshi community, which had faced historical challenges during Partition, was also courted by the BJP with the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) pitch. However, despite numerous demands from these communities, the BJP is yet to provide a concrete timeline for fulfilling the promises.
Consequently, during the recent Panchayat elections and the Dhupguri byelection, a noticeable trend emerged where SCs seemed to distance themselves from the BJP. Additionally, there is a growing perception that tribal communities in West Bengal, primarily concentrated in the Jungle Mahal area, which had previously supported the BJP, are now also drifting away from the saffron party.
It is evident that without the backing of the SC and ST communities, the BJP faces a formidable electoral challenge in West Bengal.
The author teaches journalism at St. Xavier’s College (autonomous), Kolkata, and he is a political columnist.
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