The ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) appears headed for a sweeping victory in Bihar, with multiple exit polls predicting a decisive mandate for Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United)-led coalition. The opposition Mahagathbandhan, despite a spirited campaign, seems unlikely to cross even the halfway mark, according to the projections released on Tuesday evening.
NDA predicted to retain power with strong numbers
As per the poll of polls, the NDA is projected to win between 156 and 170 seats out of Bihar’s 243-member Assembly, while the Mahagathbandhan, led by the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and including the Congress, Left parties, and the Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP), is likely to secure only 68 to 80 seats.
| Source | NDA | MGB | Others |
| Matrize-IANS | 147-167 | 70-90 | 2-6 |
| Chanakya | 130-138 | 100-108 | 3-5 |
| Poll Diary | 184-209 | 32-49 | 1-5 |
| Praja Poll Analytics | 186 | 50 | 7 |
| Polstrat | 133-148 | 87-102 | 3-5 |
| TIF Research | 145-163 | 76-95 | 0-1 |
| JVC | 135-150 | 88-103 | 3-6 |
| Peoples Insight | 133-148 | 87-102 | 3-6 |
| Peoples Pulse | 133-159 | 75-101 | 2-13 |
| P-Marq | 142-162 | 80-98 | 1-7 |
| DV Research | 137-152 | 83-98 | 3-12 |
| Poll of Polls | 146-162 | 75-90 | 2-6 |
Poll Diary projects biggest win for NDA
Among individual surveys, Poll Diary gave the NDA its most optimistic forecast, projecting between 184 and 209 seats, while Chanakya Strategies offered the Mahagathbandhan its highest potential range of 100 to 108 seats. The wide gap across predictions, however, still points to an NDA advantage across most regions of the state.
Bihar recorded its highest-ever voter turnout of 67.14 per cent in the second and final phase of polling on Tuesday — a record that underscores the intensity of this election, seen as a referendum on Nitish Kumar’s long tenure. Voting took place across 122 constituencies, covering around 3.7 crore voters, surpassing the 65.09 per cent turnout registered in the first phase on 6 November.
The increased participation, particularly among women and first-time voters, was evident as long queues formed outside several booths even after polling hours closed.
Battle lines drawn: NDA vs Mahagathbandhan vs Jan Suraaj
The NDA, comprising the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Janata Dal (United), Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular), and Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), is seeking a second consecutive term. The coalition campaigned heavily on themes of governance, welfare, and infrastructure, pitching stability and continuity as its core message.
In contrast, the Mahagathbandhan, led by Tejashwi Yadav’s RJD, focused on issues like unemployment, rural distress, and alleged governance fatigue. The alliance hoped to capitalise on anti-incumbency sentiments, but if exit polls hold true, it appears to have fallen short of regaining the momentum it enjoyed in past cycles.
Jan Suraaj’s debut and limited impact
Making its electoral debut, Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj contested over 200 constituencies, presenting itself as an alternative to the state’s entrenched alliances. However, most exit polls predict a modest showing for the new entrant, with seat estimates ranging between 2 and 6.
The final results of the Bihar Assembly elections will be announced on Friday, 14 November, when the actual vote count will reveal whether the exit poll predictions match voter reality.
