Another central problem for Biden is the alienation of some key Democratic constituencies.
Just after he was inaugurated, almost two-thirds of California voters had a favorable view of Biden. Today, fewer than half, 45%, still do, the poll found.
Among Democrats, 26% now have an unfavorable view of the president, up from just 7% when he took office.
That drop isn’t only — or even primarily — coming from voters on the left angered by Biden’s support of Israel in the war in the Gaza Strip. Biden’s support has dropped 24 points among voters who identify themselves as moderates, 15 points among those who call themselves somewhat liberal and 16 points among the strongly liberal.
Especially concerning to Democratic strategists, the percentage holding a favorable view of Biden has dropped 30 points over the last three years among voters younger than 30 and 20 points among Latino voters, only 43% of whom now see him favorably.
“The younger voters are a key segment in this election,” said DiCamillo. A 30-point decline “is huge,” DiCamillo said, and underscores the concern among Democrats that many younger voters “may just decide not to vote.”
Even if that wouldn’t cause Biden to lose the state, Democrats further down the ballot fear that a lower turnout could lead to Democratic losses in closely fought swing congressional districts. California has at least four districts that both parties consider toss-ups, enough to potentially determine which party controls the House next year.
To the extent that the poll has good news for Biden, it’s this: His standing with voters may have bottomed out. After rising consistently in polls over the last three years, the share who see him unfavorably, 49%, hasn’t changed from the last Times-Berkeley IGS poll in early January.
Moreover, in a reelection match against Trump, who is also very unpopular, Biden can still win voters who have an unfavorable view of him. Of the voters who back Biden in a head-to-head matchup with Trump, about 1 in 6 view the president unfavorably. About two-thirds of those who said they remained undecided also disapprove of Biden.
But getting votes from people who have a negative view is definitely doing things the hard way. Boosting the number of voters who see the president favorably remains job No. 1 for his reelection campaign.
