Hurricane Earl is no longer expected to strengthen into the season’s first major hurricane. Instead, Earl will strengthen slightly in the Atlantic before it is forecast to slow down considerably Saturday night and Sunday, according to the National Hurricane Center.
On Friday morning, Earl’s previously clear eye has become partially obscured by clouds as the storm’s emergence is forecast to end in the next 24 hours as it comes into contact and merges with a trough of pressure.
As of 5 p.m. Friday, Earl had maximum sustained winds of about 105 miles per hour with hurricane-force winds capable of reaching 80 miles from its center, and tropical-storm-force winds reaching 275 miles from its center. The storm is located about 430 miles northeast of Bermuda, moving northeast at about 26 mph.
Earl will move faster toward the northeast Friday night before weakening into an extratropical low on Saturday and continue to weaken through early Monday, the center’s 5 p.m. update said.
Forecast models call for Earl to curve away from the U.S., into the northeast Atlantic. The storm is not expected to threaten Florida, but the winds from the large hurricane will create large waves and swells across the western Atlantic, the latest advisory said.
As a result, there is a high risks of rip currents across the eastern United States over the weekend, including South Florida beaches.
On Thursday, Earl’s maximum sustained winds had increased to 105 mph, making it the first Category 2 hurricane of the 2022 Atlantic season.
The last time a major hurricane hadn’t formed by Sept. 9 was in 2014, when Edouard became a Category 3 on Sept. 16. That season followed a 2013 where there were no major storms recorded.
Bermuda is no longer under a tropical storm warning.
Meanwhile, the National Hurricane Center is tracking three other systems that have low odds of developing into tropical depressions.
A disturbance located in the central Atlantic has a 10% chance of developing as of 2 p.m. Friday, down significantly from 70% on Thursday.
A second system off the coast of Africa will move west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph with a 10% chance of developing over the next five days, the center’s 2 p.m. update said.
The third disturbance is forecast to move off the coast of Africa by early next week and could develop as it moves into the water and travels west over the far eastern Atlantic. As of 2 p.m. Friday, it also had low odds of developing over the next five days.
Hurricane Danielle weakened to a tropical storm early Thursday, and by 11 a.m. it became a post-tropical storm.
Danielle and Earl were the first named storms to form in the Atlantic since early July, when Tropical Storm Colin formed offshore of the Carolinas. This comes after a quiet August with no named storms, something that happened for only the third time since 1961.
The 2020 hurricane season set a record with 30 named systems, while 2021′s season was the third most active with 21 named systems. An average year calls for 14 named storms.
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The next named storm to form will be Fiona.
Forecasters say dry air, Saharan dust and wind shear have been among the reasons there haven’t been more storms this year.
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Hurricane season ends Nov. 30.
