Hurricane Ian’s forecast path moved slightly southeast late Tuesday morning, raising the risk to the Gulf coast south of Tampa and threatening southeast Florida with more wind and rain.
Emerging onto open water Tuesday morning, the storm was weakened from its journey across western Cuba but expected to gain power before making a devastating landfall somewhere on Florida’s Gulf coast.
The storm is forecast to approach Florida’s Gulf coast Wednesday and Wednesday night as a strong Category 3 hurricane, its arrival preceded by hours of pounding rain.
Expecting life-threatening flooding and facing uncertainty about the storm’s path, authorities ordered evacuations across a broad stretch of the coast. At 12 p.m. Tuesday the storm was 285 miles south-southwest of Sarasota, moving north at 10 mph.
“We’re starting to run out of time,” said Jamie Rhome, acting director of the National Hurricane Center, in a Facebook presentation Tuesday morning. “It’s really critical if you’re in the path of this storm, especially in an evacuation area, that you heed the local orders soon, today.”
[ MAP: See the latest forecast map for Hurricane Ian ]
With the shift of the storm’s forecast track, the chances increased for high winds in southeast Florida, according to a noon update from the National Weather Service in Miami.
Broward and Miami-Dade counties now have a 50-65% chance of sustained tropical force winds, which means speeds of at least 39 mph. Palm Beach County has a 65-75% chance. The high winds are most likely to arrive Wednesday morning and last through Thursday afternoon in Palm Beach County and Thursday morning in Broward and Miami-Dade counties. But the weather service said it’s possible the high winds could arrive Tuesday night.
Gov. Ron DeSantis urged Gulf coast residents to heed evacuation orders, suggesting they “go south across Alligator Alley” and head for South Florida. “South Florida is doing better,” he said.
Traffic was moving well on I-75 and I-4, he said. If traffic speeds fall below 40 mph, he said, officials will add the shoulders as travel lanes.
[ RELATED: Hurricane Ian expected to dump up to 10 inches of rain in parts of South Florida ]
The storm’s top winds fell to 115 mph after its encounter with Cuba. It is no longer forecast to achieve top winds of 140 mph, with the revised prediction calling for its strength to top out at 130 mph, the threshold for a Category 4 storm, according to an 11 a.m. Tuesday update from the National Hurricane Center.
The hurricane is then expected to weaken slightly but still make landfall as a strong Category 3 storm, bringing what may be a historic storm surge to part of Florida’s Gulf coast.
“Residents should rush all preparations to completion today,” the National Hurricane Center said in an analysis released at 11 a.m.
“Life-threatening storm surge looks increasingly likely along much of the Florida west coast where a storm surge warning is in effect, with the highest risk from Fort Myers to the Tampa Bay region,” the report said. “Residents in these areas should listen to advice given by local officials and follow evacuation orders if made for your area.”
Rainy, windy weather greeted commuters across metro South Florida Tuesday morning, as the storm’s outer bands began marching across the region.
A tornado watch was issued for all of South Florida Tuesday morning, lasting until 5 p.m., the National Weather Service said.
Since the storm’s forecast track has shifted slightly east, southeast Florida faces a higher risk of heavy rain and damaging winds, the National Weather Service said Tuesday. Tropical storm watches and warnings were extended to the entire east coast of Florida.
“Heavy squalls associated with the outer bands of Hurricane Ian will continue to move across our area this morning,” the weather service’s Miami office said in a Tweet.
A tropical storm warning was issued early Tuesday from Jupiter Inlet to the Volusia/Brevard County line including Lake Okeechobee, and a tropical storm watch was issued for Deerfield Beach north to Jupiter Inlet.
[ RELATED: As Ian heads toward Florida, are gas prices poised to spike? ]
A tropical storm watch means winds of at least 39 mph are possible within 48 hours. A tropical storm warning means winds of that speed are expected within 36 hours.
A storm surge of up to 10 feet, along with 10 inches of rain, was predicted in the Tampa Bay area, with as much as 15 inches in isolated areas. As many as 300,000 people may be evacuated from low-lying areas in Hillsborough County alone, county administrator Bonnie Wise said.
“You have a significant storm that may end up being a Category 4 hurricane,” Gov. Ron DeSantis said at a news conference Monday. “That’s going to cause a huge amount of storm surge. You’re going to have flood events. You’re going to have a lot of different impacts.”
Tropical storm warnings and watches were extended to the Middle Florida Keys and Lake Okeechobee, reflecting the storm’s larger wind field, while a broad area of the Gulf coast braced for the first direct hit on the continental United States of the 2022 hurricane season.
Despite the attention given to high winds, the biggest killer in hurricanes tends to be water. The hurricane center warned that the Gulf coast faces a high risk of storm surge, the rapid increase in sea level that can flood coastal neighborhoods.
“This looks very threatening for tremendous storm surge into the Tampa Bay area,” said Dan Kottlowski, lead hurricane forecaster for AccuWeather, the private forecasting service.
“The barrier islands would get very impressive storm surge — huge waves, phenomenal waves, waves that people don’t normally see along the west coast of Florida,” he said. “Speaking conservatively, a six-foot storm surge and as much as that in waves, so it could be a 12-foot rise in water. That’s a scenario that you don’t like to think about, but it’s possible.”
Gusts of tropical-storm-force winds are likely to reach South Florida late Tuesday night through Wednesday night with the possibility of a few tornadoes throughout Wednesday, the NWS Miami said. The probability for tropical-force winds for South Florida is 35 to 45%.
The storm is expected to expand as it strengthens, placing a larger area at risk of high winds. These winds can rip off tree branches, knock down power line and blow objects off the ground, the weather service said.
[ STAY UPDATED with the latest forecast for tropical weather at SunSentinel.com/hurricane ]
The National Hurricane Center’s latest advisory said the Florida Keys and coastal southwest and southeast Florida will see between 4 and 6 inches of rain with as much as 8 to 10 inches in some areas. Central west Florida could see a maximum of 20 inches in some areas while northeast Florida will get between 6 and 10 inches with up to 1 foot in some areas.
The remainder of the central part of the state will get between 4 and 8 inches, the center’s update said.
Forecasters are also monitoring an area of stormy weather in the Atlantic off Africa that is likely to develop into a tropical depression in the next few days, the hurricane center said in its 8 a.m. update. The system has a 70% chance of developing in the next two to five days but will run into upper-level winds by the end of the week, making it less likely to get any stronger. The system is headed north and appears not to be a threat to land.
The next named storm to form would be Julia.
Hurricane season ends Nov. 30.
Staff writers David Lyons, Lois Solomon and Scott Travis contributed to this report. Information from the Associated Press was also used.
