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There’s no question the Baltimore Orioles are a better baseball team than the Chicago White Sox, but there’s no value in betting on a team looking to win a World Series to simply beat one competing for MLB’s top draft pick.
So, to find betting value in Thursday’s series opener, we’re targeting Baltimore on the run line.
Orioles vs. White Sox odds
- Moneyline: Orioles -225, White Sox +185
- Run Line: Orioles -1.5 (-135), White Sox +1.5 (+110)
- Total: Over 8.5 (+100), Under 8.5 (-120)
Odds via BetMGM
Orioles vs. White Sox prediction & pick
Not only do the Orioles boast both the better roster and starting pitcher in Thursday’s game, but they’ve also been solid on the run line this season as 23 of their 29 wins (79%) have come by at least two runs. Conversely, 27 of Chicago’s 35 losses (77%) have been multi-run defeats.
The visiting Orioles will start 24-year-old right-hander Grayson Rodriguez, who has been dominant of late. Rodriguez gave up seven runs on 11 hits over 4 1/3 innings to the Angels on April 23, but he hasn’t given up a run since. Over his past two starts, Rodriguez has thrown 11 2/3 innings, yielding just six hits while striking out 10.
The advanced metrics (3.15 ERA vs a 4.00 expected ERA) suggest some regression might be coming, but that difference isn’t drastic and I’m willing to bet on Rodriguez’s recent form.
Mike Clevinger, who re-signed with the White Sox in early April after finding few takers on the free agent market, will start for Chicago. Through three starts, he has an ERA of 5.56 with a 7.14 expected ERA.
He’s given up eight runs (seven earned) over 11 1/3 innings in those starts. It’s difficult to imagine he’ll suddenly find his rhythm and shut down a Baltimore lineup scoring just under five runs per game.
Will Clevinger get better as the season progresses? Quite possibly. Will it happen all at once in a dominant performance Thursday night? Doubtful.
Pick: Orioles run line -1.5 (-135, BetMGM)
