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The 2024 Stanley Cup Final had the makings for a classic series between two elite teams, with a generational talent, Connor McDavid, making his debut in the championship round of the NHL playoffs.
However, it has yet to offer much excitement to this point, as the Panthers have owned every key moment, and as a result, a 3-0 series lead over the Oilers.
Looking to become the 20th team to complete a sweep in the Cup Final, Florida is priced as a slight underdog in Saturday night’s Game 4 in Edmonton. Of the 28 previous teams to hold a 3-0 lead, 20 (71%) have won Game 4. Only the 1942 Toronto Maple Leafs have ever come back from a 3-0 deficit to win the Stanley Cup.
Does Edmonton have what it takes to become the second? If so, it has to start Saturday night. Here’s a prediction and pick for Game 4.
Panthers vs. Oilers Game 4 odds
- Moneyline: Panthers +100, Oilers -120
- Puck Line: Panthers +1.5 (-275), Oilers -1.5 (+220)
- Total: Over 5.5 (+100, Under 5.5 (-120)
Odds via BetMGM
Panthers vs. Oilers Game 4 prediction
Due to a combination of the Oilers’ power rating entering the Cup Final and their analytical profile in the series, they are still priced as a slight favorite in this game. The Oilers own a 50.34% expected goal share in the series and have generated 22 more shots on goal than Florida has.
It’s hard to say any of those stats mean the results will change at this point. The Panthers aren’t making nearly as many critical mistakes and are doing a drastically better job of bending but not breaking in their defensive zone. Most of Florida’s goals over the last two games came on full-fledged defensive breakdowns and were chances that would likely have gone in on any goaltender in the game.
The Oilers’ defensive corps is looking like a significant flaw. Their star forwards have done a reasonably good job of driving play the other way, but once the Panthers spend a little time on the forecheck in the Oilers’ zone, it’s clear that mistakes are going to happen.
Cody Ceci and Darnell Nurse have been garnering a ton of criticism in the playoffs and have had their share of critical breakdowns in this series.
Due to their struggles, Oilers coach Kris Knoblauch has give his one dominant defense pairing of Mattias Ekholm and Evan Bouchard a hefty amount of minutes throughout the playoffs. The duo looks to be running out of gas at this point.
When Florida has made more significant errors, Sergei Bobrovsky has been able to make saves as needed. He owns a +6.2 goals-saved-above-expected rating in the first three games and has made a late push to steal the Conn Smythe trophy as a result.
Panthers vs. Oilers Game 4 pick
By no means should we expect the Oilers to lay down and die here, but it’s difficult to find a reason why they are still a favorite in this matchup. There is some value betting the Panthers at anything better than even money.
