Next month’s Democratic National Convention in Chicago may turn out to be tumultuous after all. Will the party’s delegates renominate President Joe Biden as originally scripted, even though he is lagging behind former President Donald Trump in national polling? Or will Biden give in and drop out, freeing his delegates to rally behind someone else?
With Biden showing few signs of folding, the action outside the United Center may have the sharpest impact on Chicago and its residents. Pro-Palestinian protesters are promising their biggest and loudest demonstration yet, and they want it to be as close as possible to the convention arena so that Democratic leaders, the party’s rank and file and — perhaps most important — 15,000 members of the media can’t miss it.
A year ago, when Biden chose Chicago as his party’s next convention site, 1968’s chaotic and violent Democratic convention in the city came up as a historical footnote, if it came up at all. Now, comparisons with that year’s mayhem don’t seem like simply another cheap shot at Chicago. Which raises a question: Do people here think playing host is worth it?
The answer is generally yes, though not without some apprehensions, according to a new Harris Poll.
Three out of every five city residents think the convention will have a positive effect on the local economy, and roughly half of all city residents say the event should be a positive for the city overall. The share of residents who support the city’s hosting of the convention outnumbers opponents, 31% to 20%, respectively, though a plurality of 39% doesn’t feel strongly either way.
Nevertheless, 3 in 10 Chicagoans say the convention will be an imposition on city residents, and a similar number want law enforcement to restrict protests and marches during the convention and worry that a disruption such as a security breach would hurt the city’s reputation.
Interestingly, people 55 years old and up, most of whom were alive during the 1968 convention and who were all adults when Democrats returned to Chicago for their quadrennial meeting in 1996, are far and away the age group most likely to see the convention as good for the city, with 73% saying it’ll boost the economy.
When it comes to economic impact, the optimists appear to have it right. Both the Democratic and Republican parties say their recent conventions generated $150 million or more in spending in the host cities, on lodging, meals, entertainment, etc. While independent studies put the net figure much lower — at $20 million to $50 million — that’s still not nothing.
Many of Chicago’s luxury hotels are almost fully booked for the third week of August, when 50,000 visitors are expected for the convention, with the few rooms still available listed at $1,000 a night and up, including taxes and fees. (One exception: The Trump International Hotel, which is offering a 25% discount on all rooms.) And good luck getting a table for dinner at a decent hour that week at a high-end restaurant anywhere downtown.
Putting on the party isn’t cheap. Organizers have put the price tag at $80 million to $100 million. But the local host committee is reported to be close to raising its goal of $85 million from corporations and wealthy donors. In addition, Congress has allocated $75 million each to Chicago and Milwaukee, which is hosting the Republican National Convention this week.
That should assuage Chicago taxpayers concerned about a hit to the city coffers. While 40% of respondents in our poll say the Democratic Party should take primary responsibility for convention expenses, 42% put that burden on government, with 17% singling out local government, ahead of federal and state governments.
Which brings us back to the big question: Is the convention really worth it? We won’t know until Aug. 22, when the convention is adjourned and the nominee — whether it’s Biden or someone else — and the conventioneers, their guests and staffs, the media and the protesters all pack up for home.
If the convention ends up more like 1996 than 1968, the city will have an even easier time marketing itself as a convention capital, helping it rebuild a vital industry that’s still recovering from the shutdown of mass meetings in the early stage of the pandemic. If Chicago can handle a political convention, it surely can manage the next trade show or summer festival.
And if the demonstrations turn ugly, it might be explained away: Chicago is just like any other big city in a world rent by political and social schisms, where violence can erupt in a flash.
Playing host is a gamble, no doubt about it, but you can’t win if you don’t play.
Will Johnson is the Chicago-based CEO of The Harris Poll, one of the world’s leading public-opinion research firms.
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