SAN FRANCISCO — This is the time to bring on the rivals. The Dodgers are used to taking on challengers down the pennant stretch: the San Francisco Giants and San Diego Padres — and, in a previous version of the National League West, the Atlanta Braves and Cincinnati Reds.
The final two weeks of the regular season are upon us. The Dodgers have one remaining head-to-head matchup that really matters — and that series starts Monday at Dodger Stadium, against the Philadelphia Phillies.
The Phillies?
The Phillies have not been realigned into the NL West. However, although the three division champions automatically qualify for the playoffs, the two with the best records earn a bye into the division series. The division champion with the third-best record — right now, that would be the Dodgers — must play in the first round.
The Milwaukee Brewers, the presumed champions of the NL Central, boast the best record in baseball. The Phillies, the presumed champions of the NL East, lead the Dodgers by 4 ½ games. The Dodgers have 13 games to play.
The Dodgers got a bye and lost in the division series in 2022. They got a bye and lost in the division series in 2023. They got a bye and came within one game of elimination in the division series in 2024. Would they be better off not getting a bye and playing in the first round?
“There is not a question in my mind that that does not make sense,” Andrew Friedman, the Dodgers’ president of baseball operations, told me last week. “It is better for your World Series odds to not play those three games.”
The five days off that come with a bye can disrupt the timing of hitters. They also can allow time for injured and weary players to recover — that could be critical for Dodgers catcher Will Smith, in particular — and for the Dodgers to arrange their starting rotation just the way they might like it. And, of course, you can’t be eliminated in the first round if you don’t play in it.
“We have made our life more difficult to this point,” Friedman said, “but I still think we have a really good run in us, and we’ll make it competitive. So obviously these three games against Philly are really important in that.”
What if the three games against the Phillies go poorly?
Even if they don’t, the Dodgers might not win the division. The Padres are closer to the Dodgers than the Dodgers are to the Phillies.
San Diego trails the Dodgers by 2½ games in the NL West.
If the Padres win the NL West, how much would that hurt the Dodgers’ chances of a lengthy postseason run?
Not much, if at all. Both teams almost certainly would end up in the wild-card round.
The NL West champion would play the last team into the NL field, most likely the Giants or New York Mets and maybe even the Reds or Arizona Diamondbacks, with the chance the opponent exhausted its pitching just to get into the playoffs. The other team would play the Chicago Cubs, and would avoid the possibility of facing the surging Phillies until the NLCS.
If the NL West comes down to the last day or two, the Dodgers would have to determine whether to use their best starters on that final weekend or line them up for the wild-card series.
In that scenario, what might be the decisive factor in the Dodgers’ calculus?
The NL West champion would play all three games of the wild-card round at home; the runner-up likely would play all three games on the road. The Dodgers are 48-26 at home, 36-39 on the road. (The Padres are 47-28 at home, 35-40 on the road.)
Would there be any precedent for the Dodgers not minding if the Padres won the NL West?
In 1996, the Dodgers and Padres were tied for the NL West lead heading into the final day of the regular season, with the two teams facing one another. Both teams were guaranteed a playoff spot.
In Game 162, the Dodgers started Ramon Martinez — undefeated in his previous nine starts — then removed him after one inning.
The Padres won the game, and with it the division. The Dodgers started Martinez in their playoff opener three days later. They lost that game, and they were swept in the series by the Braves. The winning pitchers in that series, in order: John Smoltz, Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine.
How many games are the Dodgers on pace to win?
Ninety-one.
In Friedman’s previous 10 seasons running the Dodgers, what is the fewest number of games they have won?
Ninety-one, in 2016.
How did the Dodgers do that October?
They earned a bye into the division series, in which they beat the Washington Nationals. They lost to the Chicago Cubs in the league championship series.
