Decoding the (Almost) 5% 10-Year Treasury Yield

The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note touched 5% for the first time in 16 years last week, spurring debate about whether it has peaked or just taken another step in its long and disruptive climb.

Treasury yields play a critical role in determining borrowing costs across the economy. Their nearly two-year surge has driven 30-year mortgage rates close to 8%, weighed on stocks and stirred anxieties that the surprisingly resilient economy could finally fall into a recession.