OPINION | India Losing Ground In West Asia

In February 2022, Russia initiated a military campaign against Ukraine, marking the beginning of a significant geopolitical crisis. Four years later, in February 2026, the situation escalated further when Israel, backed by the United States, launched a military offensive against Iran. Both of these conflict zones are situated relatively close to the Indian subcontinent, raising concerns in New Delhi regarding regional stability.

Despite the proximity of these conflicts, India has consistently adopted a stance focused on “dialogue and diplomacy.” This approach reflects New Delhi’s commitment to multi-alignment, where it seeks to engage with various global powers while simultaneously pursuing a path of strategic autonomy, albeit in a somewhat flexible manner.

However, reality reveals a more complex picture: in both of these ongoing wars, India has demonstrated a clear alignment with specific nations, demonstrating that its diplomatic posture is not as neutral as it may seem at first glance.

When the Ukraine war began, the western world, especially the Europeans made a beeline of sorts outside the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) and the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) by dispatching their high-ranking individuals in order to gauge which side will India be taking in what they called is an “unprovoked, illegal, and premeditated war of aggression” by Russia against a sovereign, democratic Ukraine.

Despite several high-level conversations and deliberations, India continued to maintain a neutral stance calling for “dialogue and diplomacy” even as New Delhi stayed away from taking any effort into promoting peace by making the two warring sides speak – an opportunity that was grabbed by Beijing even as it came out with a peace plan. China’s peace plan eventually did not make any progress but it did try to resolve the conflict.

India, on the other hand, was seen clearly taking sides with the Russians even as New Delhi started procuring crude from Moscow in much larger quantity making it the largest supplier.

Coming to West Asia, when the United States, in collusion with Israel, launched an illegal war on Iran killing its Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in February, India chose to remain neutral and did not condemn the illegal assassination of a country’s leader.

While External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar spoke to his counterpart Seyed Abbas Araghchi over the phone and later on in March Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri signed an official condolence book, New Delhi chose to align more with Israel and the US.

In March of this year, amid the turmoil of an ongoing war, a significant incident occurred when a U.S. submarine launched a torpedo strike on the Iranian frigate IRIS Dena. This vessel had just departed from India, where it participated in the prestigious MILAN naval exercise, a gathering aimed at enhancing cooperation among navies in the region. In the face of this provocative action, India stuck to its diplomatic balancing act.

Rather than vocally reprimanding Washington, New Delhi opted to remain strategically silent. It refrained from severe denunciations of the United States. Instead, it framed the presence of foreign military forces in the Indian Ocean as a multifaceted “reality” that required careful consideration, all while striving to maintain its stance of neutrality in the complex geopolitical landscape.

Also Read: OPINION | Perils Of Overlooking Afghanistan-Pakistan ‘Open War’

Last month, as the Iran war raged on, U.S. forces targeted military and surveillance infrastructure near the Chabahar Port, which has long been considered as a strategic asset for India. The MEA confirmed that the India-developed Shahid Beheshti terminal itself sustained no damage.

New Delhi avoided confrontation, officially stating that it was engaging with relevant stakeholders and monitoring the expiration of U.S. sanctions waivers to protect its long-term strategic and connectivity interests. Behind the curtains, India did express concerns that it might lose its strategic hold on the Chabahar Port – India’s development of the Chabahar Port in Iran was driven as a strategic counterweight to Pakistan’s Gwadar Port, which was built with Chinese funding.

India viewed China’s presence at Gwadar-just 170 kilometres east of Chabahar-as a military encirclement strategy. Developing Chabahar allowed India to maintain a strategic maritime foothold right outside the crucial Strait of Hormuz.

As India maintains its operations at the Shahid Beheshti terminal, Tehran has been actively maneuvering its geopolitical relationships. To strengthen its bargaining position with India, Iran often suggests increasing Chinese involvement in the broader Chabahar Free Zone.

This strategy serves a dual purpose: it not only seeks to expedite India’s commitment and investment in the area but also leverages the looming threat of U.S. sanctions. By bringing China into the fold, Iran aims to create a sense of urgency for India, encouraging it to not only accelerate its development efforts in Chabahar but also support Tehran in its war against the US and Israel.

In recent days, Iran has also witnessed a surge in anti-India sentiments. Several Iranian officials have expressed concerns over India condemning Iran’s actions numerous times even as Tehran attacked its West Asian neighbours because they house US military bases.

Also Read: Iran Keen On India Developing Chabahar Port Project, Says Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi

India has seemingly lost its influence over another key strategic partner in West Asia: Saudi Arabia. Just last week, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Türkiye signed the ‘Mecca Joint Defence Agreement.’ This agreement positions Pakistan as a credible and reliable ally in the region. Notably, this comes less than a year after Islamabad signed a separate defence pact with Riyadh. Both agreements resemble “NATO-style” pacts, explicitly stating that an armed attack against one party will be deemed an attack against all parties signatory in the pact.

This development represents a significant setback for India, which has maintained a strong strategic defence relationship with Saudi Arabia. For Pakistan, this is a considerable geopolitical advantage. This tactic is not new. Islamabad has historically used similar strategies to project strength against its main adversary, India.

A notable example of this was Pakistan’s joining of the U.S.-led Southeast Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO) in September 1954 and later withdrew from it in 1972. But nevertheless, it ultimately led to its role as a major ally of the United States in the ‘War on Terror’ in Afghanistan, while simultaneously acquiring advanced weaponry and resources.

India must carefully evaluate the direction it intends to take with its foreign and security policies in light of the ongoing and rapid geopolitical changes. It has become increasingly evident that the country is losing more allies than it gains in its efforts to appease its primary partners, the US and Israel.

India cannot afford to view West Asia solely through the lens of its diaspora. It is essential for New Delhi to assert its presence in the region by taking an active role in addressing issues rather than remaining a passive observer, whether through preaching or condemnation.

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