Soft Landing Talk Prompts 1990s Flashbacks

Talk of a soft landing for the U.S. economy has investors dreaming of a 1990s-style boom soon afterward. A lot would have to go right for that to happen, but it isn’t as outlandish as it sounds.

Examples of the economy escaping a tightening cycle from the Federal Reserve without entering a recession are few. Some cite the Fed’s rate cuts in 2019, though it is impossible to know how that would have ended without the pandemic. The most frequently mentioned example is a series of rate hikes in 1994. They wreaked havoc on markets that year, but were soon followed by the dawn of a golden period for both Wall Street and Main Street.